I am writing on wage revision issue almost after a month as during this period I was waiting for some concrete developments from either UFBU or IBA.   However, this wait has gone in  vain.    Let us start now with a round up of developments that have taken place in last 12 months i.e. date from which 10^th BPS is due:-

A snap shot review indicates that now it is more than a year since the BPS had become overdue, but only 4 meetings have taken place.    In the name of progress, there  is BIG ZERO, as barring IBA agreeing that effective date will be from the due date and offering merger of DA only upto October, 2011 (Instead of October, 2012), there is no progress.   Frankly, speaking both these announcements are irrelevant / against banker’s interest.  The first one is no concession, and second one is like snatching something from bankers which was due to them.    

I would like to know by what standards, the one year period, during which bankers have lost 100s of crores of rupees merely on account of interest, this can be justified.    The question is what stopped UFBU leaders to step up action during these long 12 months?

I am sure the headlines of this article are likely to raise number of eyebrows of union leaders and IBA.   But, I feel, there is a need to expose the nexus between IBA and UFBU leaders for delaying the 10^th BPS.  It appears that their intentions are to tire and worn out bankers so that at the end they will accept whatever is offered.   This is a time tested strategy and this time it is much easier to befool in view of the forthcoming elections.

Today, I am taking a plunge to predict what is likely to happen over a period of 3 to 6 months i.e. upto May, 2014.   Please note that I am writing this article on 19^th November, 2013, whereas UFBU will be finalizing its next course of action in its meeting on 21^st November, 2013 i.e. 2 days from the date when this article is being written.    Although I have no inside information about UFBU but based on past trends I predict the following scenario in next 3 to 6 months :-

(a)   UFBU is likely to  issue a hardline statement after the meeting on 21^st November, 2013.

(b)   UFBU is likely to  announce various agitational programme spanning over  a  period of 3 to 4 weeks, and ultimately  culminating into a strike call some time somewhere around middle of January, 2014;

(c)    Just before the strike date, IBA will appeal for calling of strike and both parties may go for reconciliation proceedings, and thereby calling off the strike and the meeting for negotiations may be held sometime towards the end of January, 2014.

(d)   It will be around this time that Election Commission is likely to announce Election Schedule for next Lok Sabha elections, and IBA is likely to put the boggy of model code of conduct and will try to postpone any serious negotiations only after elections i.e. May, 2014.   UFBU and IBA may also rake up the issue that it is difficult to convince government as MoF wishes to give firm commitments only after the new government is installed.   However, I feel these will be all boggies for delaying the matter.

I know that I may  be proved wrong and something dramatic may happen.   I wish that happens and I am proved wrong by UFBU and IBA and they are able to conclude the deal before April, 2014   If it is beneficial to bankers, I will be happy to be proved wrong.   However, if  the position taken by UFBU is on above lines,  it will be a clear cut  proof that they are moving on the predicted lines.

Some readers will certainly ask, what else should be done.    I am sure, if UFBU is sincere towards the bankers it will come out with a different strategy,  which confronts IBA head on in next 4 weeks and forces IBA to come to negotiating table with some serious commitments in the next meeting itself,  and give a time schedule which ensures that the wage negotiations are completed before Elections.     In case UFBU feels that Election model code can interfere with its negotiations, it should seek legal opinion and write to Election Commission (before 30^th November, 2013),  to know their views, and ensure that Election Commission exempts   the same, on the plea that it is a continuous process, which has started much earlier and should not stop when model code of conduct comes to vogue.    I think such statements have been issued by Election Commission on some occasions, but UFBU needs to plan it right now.   However,  I have my serious doubts about the good intentions and good planning from leaders of UFBU who till date have miserably failed their cadre.   Thus, I am giving hints to UFBU leaders as to how they need to plan the things so that there is no further delay. 

I will like to confess here that I do not consider myself to be the ultimate word on such issues, but giving some practical suggestions and clues.   There can be even some better suggestions to ensure that IBA falls in line and agrees to conclude the deal before Lok Sabha Elections.    However,  UFBU needs to take into consideration the above suggestions and brain storm in the session and put up full details of the strategy to ensure that conclusion of 10^th BPS takes place before Lok Sabha elections.

Like all other bankers, I too will be waiting for the next strategy by UFBU after the meeting on 21^st November, 2013.